ARIZONA DEATH toll climbs; crisis feared for winter.

Deepening crisis feared for winter

Arizona has caught up to New York when it comes to reported deaths per capita — even though the latter was ravaged by the coronavirus early in the pandemic before treatments or vaccines were developed.

Some health experts worry Arizona could be headed for a deepening crisis as winter approaches. Although average daily deaths from covid-19 remain much lower than during the state’s second wave in January, Arizona experienced a 138% increase in the seven-day rolling average of daily new deaths per 100,000 people last week, according to data collected by The Washington Post.

“It’s bad,” Will Humble, executive director of Arizona’s Public Health Association, said.

Some public health experts say Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, lifted pandemic-related restrictions in March without putting in place measures to mitigate the risks of reopening, causing cases to rise again in July just as the more contagious delta variant was becoming the most common coronavirus variant in the United States.

Now, Ducey — who is vaccinated and has urged others to get vaccinated but argues it should be a personal choice — is engaged in a battle against the federal government on several fronts in an effort to prevent mask mandates in schools and vaccination mandates in workplaces in his state.

Last week, the U.S. Labor Department warned Arizona about its “continued failure to adopt” a Biden administration emergency public health directive requiring, among other measures, that health care workers receive paid time off to get vaccinated and to recover from potential side effects. Ducey called the reprimand, which could result in the federal government stripping the state of its ability to enforce its own workplace safety standards, “nothing short of a political stunt and desperate power grab.”

Arizona on Saturday reported 3,145 cases of the coronavirus and 30 deaths from covid-19 - twice as many daily cases as the state was reporting three months ago. The governor’s office did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

More than 52% of Arizona’s population is fully vaccinated, according to Post data, but “we’ve hit a brick wall when it comes to vaccinating vaccine- resistant seniors,” explains Humble, “so that’s what’s causing the continued influx into the hospital system.” He says that won’t change; “they’re just going to end up getting infected,” he predicts.

Humble also says it’s not clear how successful a campaign to roll out pediatric coronavirus vaccines among 5-to-11-year-olds will be if it receives Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approval to kick off next month. He estimates that only a portion of parents in Arizona “are enthusiastic” about getting their child vaccinated — a step he and other experts say is crucial to reducing community transmission at a time when children between 5 and 11 have a higher per capita weekly incidence of the coronavirus than 65-to74-year-olds nationwide.

Only 21% of Arizonans under the age of 20 are vaccinated, according to state data, compared with 93% of people ages 65 and up. “It’s not like the kids are ending up in the hospitals, but they are starting chains of transmission [to] vaccine-resistant adults and seniors who do end up in the hospitals,” Humble says.

Arizona is not the only state with a concerning public health outlook: According to Post analysis, daily deaths have increased by 267% over the past seven days in Alaska, by 143% in Montana and by 100% in Rhode Island.